Where Is Retail Business Headed in Australia?

Walk through the CBD of any Australian capital city and you can see the change for yourself. Ten years ago, city retail space was mostly shops, with cafes and restaurants filling the gaps. Today it has flipped. Food, coffee and experiences dominate, and traditional shopfronts are the minority. That happened in a single decade, and I suspect we have only seen the start of it.
So it would be easy to conclude that retailing has all gone online, and that retail businesses are doomed. But have they?
Is Bricks and Mortar Retail Dead in Australia?
No. Not even close. The numbers tell a very different story to the headlines.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics puts online sales at around 12 to 13 per cent of total retail turnover. That share has roughly doubled since 2019, which sounds dramatic until you turn it around: nearly nine dollars in every ten spent at Australian retailers still flows through, or around, a physical store. Australians spent about $82.6 billion online in 2025, up around 14 per cent on the year before according to the Australia Post eCommerce Report 2026, and about nine in ten households now buy something online at least occasionally. At the same time, total retail spending keeps growing.
The ABS measured over $38 billion in monthly retail spending in early 2026, up about 5 per cent on a year earlier.
Put those numbers together and the real story appears. Online and offline retail are not at war. They are converging. Even the biggest online-only brands keep opening physical stores, because a store builds trust and brand loyalty in ways a website simply cannot.
Five Shifts Reshaping Australian Retail
1. Stores Are Becoming Experiences, Not Just Shelves
Retailers used to be terrified of “showrooming”, where shoppers browse in store and then buy online at a better price. The smart operators have stopped fighting it. They have realised the store’s job has changed. It is no longer a warehouse with a till at the front. It is a place for customers to see, touch and learn, and the sale can happen wherever the customer prefers. Design the store around that idea and showroomers become customers instead of lost sales.
2. Data and AI Have Arrived on the Shop Floor
Online retailers have always known exactly what their customers look at, linger on and abandon. Physical stores are catching up fast. Foot traffic counters, loyalty programs and AI forecasting tools are becoming normal equipment. The Australian Retail Outlook 2026, produced by KPMG and Inside Retail, found AI dominating the conversation among retail executives this year. For a small retailer the payoff is more down to earth: knowing your best sellers, your dead stock and your true margins, week by week rather than at stocktake time.
3. Checkout Is Disappearing
Tap and go, mobile wallets, pre-order apps, self checkout. The payment step is becoming almost invisible, and retailers keep finding new ways to remove friction. Every second a customer doesn’t spend queuing is a customer more likely to come back.
4. Online and Offline Are Becoming One Business
Click and collect. Ship from store. Returning an online purchase over the counter. None of this impresses customers any more, because they now expect it as standard. The retailers growing fastest in Australia run one inventory, one customer database and one brand across every channel, and treat the website and the shop as two doors into the same business.
5. Technology Handles the Routine, People Handle the Relationships
Automation keeps absorbing the mundane work of retail: checkout, stock counts, reordering. That does not mean salespeople are disappearing. It means their job is improving. When the routine tasks are automated, good staff can spend their time on the one thing technology cannot do, which is building the relationships that bring customers back.
What Does This Mean If You Own, or Want to Buy, a Retail Business?
I have watched buyers change what they are willing to pay for. A retail business that is just a lease, some stock and a till is worth a little less every year. A retail business with a loyal customer database, an online sales channel, documented systems and a store people actually enjoy visiting commands a premium. The buyer is paying for a business built for where retail is going, not where it has been.
If you own a retail business, the five shifts above are your to-do list, and your value-building plan. If you are thinking of buying a business in retail, they are your due diligence checklist. Either way, an independent business valuation will tell you exactly where the business stands today, and what it could be worth with the right changes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is a retail business still a good business to buy in Australia?
Yes, if you buy well. Total retail spending in Australia keeps growing, and physical stores still capture most of it. The best opportunities are established retailers with a strong location, loyal customers and obvious room to add online sales and better systems.
What percentage of Australian retail is online?
Around 12 to 13 per cent of total retail turnover, based on the most recent ABS figures. That is roughly double the share before 2020, and it grows a little every year.
What makes a retail business valuable to buyers?
Consistent profits, a favourable lease that can be transferred, a customer database, an established online channel, systems that run without the owner, and a store experience customers cannot get from a website.
Should I sell my retail business now or wait?
That depends on your numbers and your exit plan, not on the headlines. Start by having the business professionally valued. Then you can decide, with real data in front of you, whether to sell now or spend a year or two lifting its value first.
About the Author
Bruce Coudrey is the founder and Principal of Benchmark Business Sales & Valuations, one of Australia’s largest business brokerages, which he has led since 1999. A Registered Business Valuer and court appointed expert witness, Bruce has been involved in around 5,000 completed business sales and has valued small businesses since 2003. He was awarded the AIBB President’s Medal in 2010.
Own a retail business and wondering what it is worth, or what it could be worth? Contact Bruce for a confidential chat.










